Ever wondered if natural surroundings give out subtle hints before going through landscape level transformations? Scientists from Princeton University (USA) and Indian Institute of Science (India), have collaborated to try and figure out if there are any such hints or signs in nature, which can help in predicting transformations within grassland and woodland habitats in Serengeti-Mara. The researchers were working on ‘Critical Slowing Down’ (CSD), a phenomenon where as ecosystems approach natural landscape-level changes (regime shifts), they tend to become slow to recover from external disturbances in nature (also called perturbations). A few common examples of such perturbations are earthquakes, floods, storms, forest fires and even human-induced alteration of forests, wetlands and other natural landscapes. The researchers used ‘rainfall’ as a potential indicator, that brings about changes among grassland-woodland landscapes. With the help of information retrieved from satellite imagery and by using advanced statistical modelling, they have come close to predicting these transformations before they occur. ‘CSD effect’ has been tested and proven in laboratory settings as well as in well-mixed landscape systems. But this is the first time scientists are trying to study its effect on a large landscape-level scale. The study was also able to detect ‘sensitive regions’ within the grassland-woodland habitat which are more prone to regime shifts. The researchers further suggested that more such landscape-level experiments on the ‘CSD effect’ are needed, to prove it as a robust technique in identifying early signs of changes within large ecosystems.
Read time: 2 mins6 Oct 2017